An evaluation of the Mellon Mays Undergraduate Fellowship's effect on PhD production at non-UNCF institutions

• We evaluate the Mellon Mays Undergraduate Fellowship's effect on PhD production.
• We find little evidence that participation increases the likelihood to attain a PhD.
• We also find little evidence that the intensity of participation increases PhD production
• We can rule out a program effect of more than 1 PhD per cohort with 95% confidence.

The Mellon Mays Undergraduate Fellowship Program (MMUF) encourages underrepresented minority (URM) students to pursue PhD study with an eye toward entering academia. Fellows have completed PhDs at high rates relative to other students, but they are selected for their interest and potential. In this paper we use restricted access data from the Mellon Foundation and the National Science Foundation's Survey of Earned Doctorates to investigate the effect of the MMUF on PhD completions by URM students who graduate from participating institutions. We find no evidence that participation in the program causes a statistically significant increase in the numbers of PhDs completed by URM students, and increases greater than about one PhD per institution per cohort lie outside a 95% confidence interval of our estimates. This suggests that at least some of the PhDs completed by participants would have occurred without the program.