The effects of exemptions to Florida's test-based promotion policy: Who is retained?: Who benefits academically?

We evaluate the impact of Florida's test-based promotion policy on the probability that low-performing students are retained using data on the universe of third-grade students in the state of Florida from 2001 to 2004. We also examine the effect of formal exemptions to the policy on student proficiency in reading two years later. In an evaluation of retention for third-grade students over time with a logit model we find that Florida's policy has increased the probability that minority students are retained to a greater extent than white students. Contrary to previous research, this differential retention occurs after controlling for student academic proficiency. However, in an evaluation of the academic performance of students who were in the first class subject to the retention policy, we find that retained students outperform students who received an exemption from the policy in reading two years after baseline, indicating that on average exemptions have not been granted to those individuals who would benefit from promotion.