Physician density planning in a public healthcare system: Complexities, threats and opportunities—The case of the Israeli healthcare system

• We discuss the methodology of physicians forecasting.
• We examine the policy changes in physicians training.
• It is possible to double the number of medical students in 6 years.
• Success in one sector of the workforce may precipitate greater challenges.
• Incentives for training in specialties with shortage succeeded beyond expectations.

Human-resource planning in healthcare is one of the most significant challenges that healthcare systems worldwide face. Among all healthcare professions, the planning of physician supply is the most complex of all due to physicians’ lengthy training and many specialties.Forecasts showing a disturbing downward trend in the ratio of physicians to population in Israel prompted the Israeli Government in 2010 to establish a committee mandated to predict demand for physicians and recommend steps to adjust supply to it.The committee analyzed numerous variables that affect physician supply and demand and recommended measures that in greater part were implemented.The article discusses the methodology of the committee, its recommendations, and their implementation such as a 52% increase in the number of first-year medical students between 2010 and 2012. Its analysis of the current situation shows that the implementation of the recommendations successfully stemmed the decrease in physician density and attained the committee's other long-term objectives: physician density of 2.9 per 1000 of population and an increase (32.5%) in the number of physicians who began training in targeted specialties.