Testing farm management options as climate change adaptation strategies using the MONICA model

▶ The MONICA model was employed to test different management options for farmers in Germany to adapt to climate change. ▶ Spring barley succeeding a winter barley may soon allow for larger yields by intensification of the cropping cycle. ▶ By 2070 late sown winter cereals may grow into drought periods during their grain filling phase. ▶ Irrigation may improve yields of late cereals and shallow rooting crops on sandy soils in the dry East, but not in the humid West.

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change will be driven at the farm level in first place. The MONICA model was employed in four different modelling exercises for demonstration and testing different management options for farmers in Germany to adjust their production system. 30-Year simulations were run for the periods 1996–2025 and 2056–2085 using future climate data generated by a statistical method on the basis of measured data from 1961 to 2000 and the A1B scenario of the IPCC (2007a). Crop rotation designs that are expected to become possible in the future due to a prolonged vegetation period and at the same time shortened cereal growth period were tested for their likely success. The model suggested that a spring barley succeeding a winter barley may be successfully grown in the second half of the century, allowing for a larger yields by intensification of the cropping cycle. Growing a winter wheat after a sugar beet may lead to future problems as late sowing makes the winter wheat grow into periods prone to drought. Irrigation is projected to considerably improve and stabilise the yields of late cereals and of shallow rooting crops (maize and pea) on sandy soils in the continental climate part of Germany, but not in the humid West. Nitrogen fertiliser management needs to be adjusted to increasing or decreasing yield expectations and for decreasing soil moisture. On soils containing sufficient amounts of moisture and soil organic matter, enhanced mineralisation is expected to compensate for a greater N demand.