کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5053038 | 1371370 | 2007 | 25 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
Between 1991 and 1993 the construction of residential units in Taiwan rose to triple normal levels. Identifying the surge as an event as opposed to a fluctuation in the production time-series, we ask what triggered this surge in physical production. Price mechanisms within the Taiwanese housing market offered no solution, and only limited help in deciding which of many market-external events affected production. This forced an exhaustive examination of large numbers of market-external events as potential triggers and intensifiers of the production surge. This approach led to different conclusions from all earlier analyses. A complex sequence of triggers and their interactions that intensified the surge is presented. This interpretation stands opposed to previous mono-causal explanations. This new interpretation - multiple unique events interacting to trigger and intensify another unique event - indicates limits to econometric methods in empirical economics. Consequently specific attention is paid to the development of a qualitative methodology.
Journal: Economic Analysis and Policy - Volume 37, Issue 1, March 2007, Pages 15-39