The endogenous probability of migration and economic growth

This study develops a migration model incorporating the probability of migration based upon the 'threshold effects' of average human capital. We find that when the probability of migration is dependent upon prior average human capital, the average human capital threshold is a crucial determinant of the growth of the economy; however, when the probability of migration is dependent upon current average human capital, indeterminacy may occur. If households perceive that there is a high probability of migration in the future, they will invest more in their education, thereby increasing the accumulation of human capital, which will in turn induce a higher probability of migration.