The optimal timing of initial public offerings in the course of privatization: Theory and an illustrative application

Privatization has been studied primarily from the standpoint of the post-privatization performance of state-owned firms (SOEs) or of various ways of valuing and privatizing them, but little attention has been paid to the timing of privatization. In this paper we use real options analysis to consider a situation where the government has the option to delay a planned privatization in the expectation that exogenous events may make the firm more valuable to outside investors in the future. In addition to considering the theoretical aspects of the problem, we apply our model to Taiwan's privatization program to add to the understanding of the role of option value in an actual privatization program. Our results suggest that the (mis)timing of privatization represents significant losses for the government and for investors.