Tourist traffic simulation as a protected area management tool. The case of Serengeti National Park in Tanzania

The principal economic source of protected areas is tourism. However, tourism may negatively affect habitats. The growth of wildlife tourism has raised international concern regarding whether there is an equilibrium between tourism and conservation. Management actions should help provide this equilibrium. In relation to transportation management, most studies have focused on visitors' experiences and disregarded the consequences of traffic volume changes. Because tourist traffic is acknowledged as being harmful to habitats, this study develops a tool that simulates changes in traffic volume to facilitate the assessment of management actions. The tool is a simple transport model based on transport network characteristics and 2680 trip registrations in Serengeti National Park. The analyses show that a northern road through the Park may distribute tourist traffic, whereas the potential new international airport may reduce the overall tourist traffic on roads.