From restricting the use of cars by license plate numbers to congestion charging: Analysis for Medellin, Colombia

- For Medellin, we evaluate the transition from the “pico y placa” to congestion charging.
- We estimated a hybrid choice model including latent variables.
- We use the model to analyse the impact of toll and schedules on the modal-split.
- Car drivers tend to change their departure time to avoid paying the toll.
- A charge of COP 6000 (USD 3.33) will reduce the car market share by 37% during peak-morning.

In Medellin, Colombia, as in several cities in Latin America and other developing countries, a driving restriction policy according to the license plate number has been applied as a strategy to reduce congestion and other externalities associated with car use. Despite the apparent initial success of the policy, locally called pico y placa, the problems of congestion and pollution have re-emerged over time. In response, local authorities are considering removing this driving restriction and replacing it with a congestion charge policy, also known as road pricing.To evaluate the impact of the policy implementation on drivers' behaviour, we estimated a hybrid choice model including latent variables. The model was used to analyse the influence of congestion charging policy factors such as tolls and schedules on the modal split during the morning peak hour.The elasticities analysis shows a high tendency of car drivers to change their departure time to avoid paying the toll. A suggested charge of COP 6000 (USD 3.33) and a more extensive charging schedule compared to the current pico y placa schedule reduces the car market share by about 37% which is similar to the car use reduction generated by a two-digit pico y placa policy in the short term.