MinireviewSomatic mutations in cancer: Stochastic versus predictable

- A large component of cancer etiology has been deemed stochastic.
- Analysis of APC and TP53 driver nonsense mutations in cancers appears predictable.
- Methylation status of gene body CGA codons in tumor suppressors predicts mutations.

The origins of human cancers remain unclear except for a limited number of potent environmental mutagens, such as tobacco and UV light, and in rare cases, familial germ line mutations that affect tumor suppressor genes or oncogenes. A significant component of cancer etiology has been deemed stochastic and correlated with the number of stem cells in a tissue, the number of times the stem cells divide and a low incidence of random DNA polymerase errors that occur during each cell division. While somatic mutations occur during each round of DNA replication, mutations in cancer driver genes are not stochastic. Out of a total of 2843 codons, 1031 can be changed to stop codons by a single base substitution in the tumor suppressor APC gene, which is mutated in 76% of colorectal cancers (CRC). However, the nonsense mutations, which comprise 65% of all the APC driver mutations in CRC, are not random: 43% occur at Arg CGA codons, although they represent <3% of the codons. In TP53, CGA codons comprise <3% of the total 393 codons but they account for 72% and 39% of the mutations in CRC and ovarian cancer OVC, respectively. This mutation pattern is consistent with the kinetically slow, but not stochastic, hydrolytic deamination of 5-methylcytosine residues at specific methylated CpG sites to afford T·G mismatches that lead to C → T transitions and stop codons at CGA. Analysis of nonsense mutations in CRC, OVC and a number of other cancers indicates the need to expand the predictable risk factors for cancer to include, in addition to random polymerase errors, the methylation status of gene body CGA codons in tumor suppressor genes.