Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rainfall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability to these processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological processes at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain rainforest watershed in Hainan Island, China using the BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources)-HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN)-CAT (Climate Assessment Tool) modeling system. The HSPF model was calibrated and validated with available measured data prior to its applications. Three simulation scenarios were then performed to gain a better understanding of the impacts of different rainfall rates and storm intensities on stream discharge, surface water runoff from forest land, and water outflow from the JFL watershed outlet. Results showed that a 10% increase in rainfall rate could result in 1.3 times increase in stream discharge, surface runoff, and water outflow. A potential future wet climate could have profound impacts on hydrological processes at the JFL watershed, whereas a potential future dry climate could result less impacts on stream discharge, surface runoff, and water outflow at the same watershed. Our simulation further revealed that climate change driven by extreme rain storms had greater impacts on annual surface runoff than on annual stream discharge. The coupled CAT-HSPF model is a useful tool to modify historical rainfall data for projecting future rainfall variation impacts on forest hydrological processes due to climate change. This approach would be able to extend to other regions around the world.