A comparison of West Nile virus surveillance using survival analyses of dead corvid and mosquito pool data in Ontario, 2002-2008

The aim of this study was to improve understanding of the relative performance of the use of dead wild corvids and mosquito pools infected with West Nile virus (WNv) in surveillance for WNv activity in the environment. To this end, all records on dead corvid submissions and mosquito pools tested in Public Health Units (PHUs) in Ontario, from 2002 to 2008, were explored. Survival analyses were employed using the first-WNv-positive cases detected each year for each PHU, and censored observations for PHUs which did not detect WNv during a given year using each data source (504 observations). Survival analyses were employed to compare the number of surveillance weeks before WNv was detected by either data source, and the influence of temporal, geographic and sociodemographic factors on these data. The outcome measurement for the final accelerated failure time (AFT) model with log-logistic distribution was a time ratio, which represents the ratio of the survival time of one group relative to another. Dead corvid surveillance was faster at detecting WNv than testing mosquito pools during the early years of WNv incursion into Ontario, while mosquito testing found WNv more quickly later in the study period. There was also regional variation in time-to-detection of WNv, by modality, as well as for various types of urban/rural settings. In comparison to mosquito surveillance, West Nile virus was detected more quickly using dead corvid surveillance in sparsely populated regions. These areas may benefit from collection of dead corvids to optimize detection and direct early surveillance efforts. When we compared the time-to-detection of WNv using dead corvids and the onset of human cases in PHUs, we found that dead corvid surveillance was predictive of West Nile activity in health units that reported human cases during the first 3 years of the incursion into Ontario.