Determining the daily rainfall characteristics from the monthly rainfall totals in central and northeastern Thailand

► Method of predicting the risk of agro-meteorological shocks. ► Markov chain 1st order transition probabilities are calculated. ► Daily rainfall magnitudes are shown to follow the Gamma distribution estimated using mean and variance. ► Most likely daily rainfall parameters for certain monthly rainfall totals are calculated. ► Findings and flexible approach can be applied by various end-users.