Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”

We use the wavelet coherency analysis in order to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate changes and its major financial determinants for selected emerging economies. Our analysis shows that the changes in exchange rate are correlated with interest rate differentials, risk premium, the FED's monetary policy implementation and its policy uncertainty. Moreover, the co-movement between the exchange rate changes and its financial determinants substantially changes across frequencies and over time. The co-movement patterns also vary to a large extent across “fragile” emerging markets. Finally, the strongest co-movement of exchange rate changes is with the risk premium in all countries.