Spatial conservation prioritization to conserve biodiversity in response to sea level rise and land use change in the Matanzas River Basin, Northeast Florida

Sea level rise and land use change are likely to be some of the most fundamental and important challenges for biodiversity conservation in low-lying coastal areas in the 21st century. To protect biodiversity in coastal areas, there is an urgent need to identify conservation priorities in response to sea level rise and land use change. In this study, an integrated modeling process using a geomorphological model, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization is developed to identify conservation priorities in the face of sea level rise and land use change. We present a case study in the Matanzas River Basin of Northeast Florida that utilizes this integrated modeling approach with data for 38 focal species. We incorporate species-specific connectivity requirements in the analysis and compare the conservation priorities with existing conservation datasets including current conservation areas and the Florida Ecological Greenways Network (FEGN). Results show that current reserves are not adequate to protect some of the most important conservation priorities in response to sea level rise but the updated FEGN does serve as a good foundation to inform future conservation decisions relevant to sea level rise. To protect the top 10% conservation priorities, approximately 11,700, 10,900 and 15,200 acres of additional land will need to be acquired for the 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 m sea level rise scenarios respectively.