The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia

This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42 years (1973-2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3-4 years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.