Modeling triple-diffusions of infectious diseases, information, and preventive behaviors through a metropolitan social network—An agent-based simulation

• A framework to represent simultaneous diffusion of disease, information, and behavior.
• Detailed model design for simulating triple-diffusion in metropolitan areas.
• Results reasonably replicate observed influenza spread and information propagation.
• The model is valuable to devise information/behavior-based intervention strategies.

A typical epidemic often involves the transmission of a disease, the flow of information regarding the disease, and the spread of human preventive behaviors against the disease. These three processes diffuse simultaneously through human social networks, and interact with one another, forming negative and positive feedback loops in the complex human-disease systems. Few studies, however, have been devoted to coupling all the three diffusions together and representing their interactions. To fill the knowledge gap, this article proposes a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate a triple-diffusion process in a metropolitan area of 1 million people. The individual-based approach, network model, behavioral theories, and stochastic processes are used to formulate the three diffusions and integrate them together. Compared to the observed facts, the model results reasonably replicate the trends of influenza spread and information propagation. The model thus could be a valid and effective tool to evaluate information/behavior-based intervention strategies. Besides its implications to the public health, the research findings also contribute to network modeling, systems science, and medical geography.