Winter soil temperature dependence of alpine plant distribution: Implications for anticipating vegetation changes under a warming climate

The topographical heterogeneity of mountain landscapes and the associated species turnover over short distances should prompt us to examine the relationships between climate and mountain plant distribution at a much finer scale than is commonly done. Here, I focused on the root zone temperature experienced by low-stature perennial-dominated plant communities of temperate mountains, which are seasonally covered by snow. Based on the analysis of multi-annual recordings of ground temperatures across a broad spectrum of plant communities, I propose a habitat template using Growing Degree Days (GDD) and Freezing Degree Days (FDD). These two indices summarize soil thermal conditions experienced during the favorable and the unfavorable period for growth. This heuristic framework allows refining our working hypotheses on the range shifts of mountain plants in response to recent and future climate change. Regional trends in climate variables controlling GDD and FDD indicate that the combination of earlier snow melt-out and higher summer temperatures have led to an overall increase in GDD over the last decades. However the persistence of cold episodes in spring and in fall along with the shorter snow coverage suggest that the positive effect of an extended growing season might be counteracted by the detrimental effects of increasing FDD. I thus hypothesize (i) a local-scale, downward shift of plant species along mesotopographical gradients, with marked species infilling in sparsely vegetated, long-lasting snow patches that contain vacant niches and (ii) a watershed-scale upward shift of subalpine species inhabiting south-exposed grasslands and able to cope with moderate FDD. This perspective challenges the simplistic view of an overall range shift of mountain plants along elevational gradients and calls for the improvement of models of snow cover dynamics and root zone temperature to draw up realistic scenarios of mountain vegetation changes under a warmer climate.