A temporal and spatial analysis of homicides

• We investigate homicide seasonality in Recife, Brazil.
• We test the similarity of spatial homicide patterns.
• Seasonality is not present for all temporal dimensions.
• Spatial homicide patterns differ within temporal dimensions.
• Seasonal patterns can be understood using routine activity theory.

The temporal analyses of crime date back almost 200 years with mixed empirical support. In this paper, we contribute to this literature investigating the temporal variations (seasons, months, days of week, and periods of day) of homicide in a city with a tropical climate, Recife, Brazil. Invoking both temperature aggression and routine activity theory as theoretical explanations, we found no statistically significant differences across seasons or months despite modest increases in the hottest and driest months. We did, however, find statistically significant increases in homicides during the weekends and evenings. Moreover, we found evidence for changes in the spatial patterns of homicide at different temporal dimensions. Overall, we found little empirical support for temperature aggression theory and strong support for routine activity theory.