How Online Consumer Segments Differ in Long-term Marketing Effectiveness

• We model the long-term marketing effectiveness of offline and online promotions for a major digital music provider
• We combine individual-level CRM data and aggregate marketing mix data to investigate effectiveness across segments
• We find that, in contrast to CPG research, heavy users are the least price sensitive while light users are the most price sensitive

Online commerce gives companies not only a growing global sales platform, but also powerful consumers enjoying 24/7 availability, choice proliferation and the power to opt in and out permission-based communication. Unfortunately, our knowledge is limited on long-term marketing effectiveness in this space and on how it differs across customer segments. Managers appear overwhelmed by the combination of rich online data on hundreds of thousands of customers and the typical aggregate-level data on offline marketing spending.This paper is the first to investigate the long-term impact of coupon promotions, TV, radio, print, and Internet advertising across customer segments for a major digital music provider with over 500,000 customers. We first segment customers and subsequently analyze how these segments respond in the long run to different marketing activities when purchasing music downloads. Our findings reveal that the effectiveness of marketing differs across segments, while standard segmentation approaches fail to identify the most valuable catches in a sea of consumers. In contrast to empirical generalizations on consumer packaged goods, heavy users of digital music products are least sensitive to price and most sensitive to TV advertising and to multiple touch points. Light users, the majority of consumers, are price sensitive and tend to opt out of targeted communication. Our research enables managers in the digital media space to target high-value customer segments with the most effective actions.