کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
896381 1472395 2016 5 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Latent heterogeneity effects in modelling individual hazards: A non-proportional approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اثرات ناهمگنی نهفته در مدل سازی خطرات فردی: یک رویکرد غیرمتناسب
کلمات کلیدی
مدل های انتشار ناهمگن؛ مدل مخاطرات متناسب کاکس؛ اثرات Bemmaor
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی


• Modelling heterogeneity in innovation diffusion is separated in two directions.
• Bemmaor's methodology for latent propensities is included in the Cox model.
• Time scale parameter depends upon observed covariates at individual level.
• An illustrative and strictly reproducible example on ovarian pathology is given.

This paper proposes an extension of individual hazard modelling through diffusion of innovation methodologies with the introduction of latent neighbouring effects in individual hazards. The proposal combines the Bemmaor's methodology for latent heterogeneous factors in the Cox proportional hazards model. The new model, the Bass–Bemmaor–Cox model, defines a non-proportional approach driven by a mixture of shifted Gompertz individual distributions where the time scale parameter governing growth dynamics depends upon observed covariates at the individual level. Conversely, individual propensity to the change of state included in the Gompertz sub-model is heterogeneous and latent within observed population. Based on experimental data referred to an ovarian pathology under treatment, an illustrative example is given. Further applications may be relevant for quantitative forecasting in marketing and technological diffusion contexts.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 105, April 2016, Pages 89–93
نویسندگان
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