Evaluation of surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) using an individual based epidemiological model

Results of median time until detection and median number of infected farms at detection for SL (302 weeks and seven farms) were in agreement with estimates from an outbreak in the Netherlands in 1999. ELISA-B and GAMMA-B performed better than SL with a much lower median time until detection (189 and 97 weeks, respectively). The results for the tuberculination methods (ST + CT and CT) and ELISA-M depended heavily on the frequency in which the tests were performed. The tuberculination methods ST + CT and CT yield comparable results and detect the infection sooner than SL, also at the lowest tested frequency of once in 5 years. ELISA-M is comparable with SL at frequencies of once in 4 or 5 years, and this test works well at frequencies of once a year or higher. Our study results are used for an economical optimisation analysis of the six surveillance strategies.