Introducing a status of access to raw material resources for manufacturers of cellulosic industries

• The three options were analyzed through a combination of multi-criteria decision techniques.
• Alternative C, long term contracts with the suppliers, is an appropriate solution to provide raw material for the cellulosic industries of Iran.
• The category of “Risks” is assigned the highest priority in the analysis.
• Risks and costs are more sensitive (twice change in the priority of alternatives) than benefits and opportunities (one change in priority of alternatives).

Due to the implementation of Iran's Northern Forest Protection Plan for wood resources, manufacturers of wood and paper have a major problem in raw material supply in Iran; hence, they have to search for other resources to supply and procure their required raw material. Although there are some available substitutes for northern forests' timber resource, such as poplar plantation, agricultural wastes, and recycled papers, the present status of access to the resources presents a significant constraint on the viability of cellulosic product manufacturing. Accordingly, this research presents a decision-making model developed to select the best solution for raw material supply to the wood-cellulosic industry.Three possibilities can be considered as potential solutions: (1) implementation of poplar plantation and other agricultural products by manufacturers, (2) short-term contracts with public and private firms and farmers, and (3) long-term contracts with public and private firms and farmers. The Analytic Network Process and Analytic Hierarchy Process were used to synthesize and analyze the model. Our analysis using these techniques shows that all calculated decisions are influenced by external factors.A value-weighted competency model was calculated in the first stage with the influence of external factors on the competency model. Hierarchical design decisions were made for each of the competencies and their subsets. Paired comparison matrices associated with the degree of importance of each of the competencies were achieved in the second stage. In the final stage, subsets of competencies’ weights and their sub-options were identified with the combination of the competencies and the best solution was obtained. Finally a sensitivity analysis of the model was performed.