Endogenizing the Planning Horizon in Urban fringe agriculture

To evaluate the nature of farm operation longevity in urban fringe agriculture, this paper develops a model that endogenizes planning horizon and estimates an empirical model whereby anticipated longevity in farming is regressed against farm, farmer, regulatory and land market related variables. The results suggest that the length of the planning horizon is directly related to farm profitability and confirm the impermanence syndrome hypothesis that land values are inversely related to the planning horizon. Contrary to farmers’ claims that periodic land disposal provides an internal source of credit to support long-term viability, the disposition of portions of the farmland is found to shorten the planning horizon. Innovative farmers are found to have longer planning horizons while experiences with Right-to-Farm conflicts are found to result in decreased planning horizon. Given the expected continual increase in land values and the growing physical closeness of farmers to their non-farm neighbors, significant concerns remain about the long-term survivability of urban fringe farmers. This study suggests the importance of considering farmers’ planning horizon as a key component in farmland retention programs.