کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
995155 | 936172 | 2013 | 16 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts](/preview/png/995155.png)
This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts that are alternative to the median response. We build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of professional forecasts surveyed from January 2002 to September 2012. We compare them to the median response with respect to their predictive power in a 12-month-ahead horizon. We also compare the predictive power of the alternative measures with the realized core of consumer price inflation.
ResumoEsse artigo apresenta uma breve análise de medidas representativas alternativas à mediana da pesquisa de expectativas conduzida pelo Departamento de Relacionamento com Investidores e Estudos Especiais (Gerin) do Banco Central do Brasil. A partir do painel de expectativas coletadas de janeiro de 2002 a setembro de 2012, construímos séries históricas de núcleos e da moda das expectativas para a inflação, que, a seguir, são comparadas com a mediana em relação ao seu poder preditivo para o horizonte de 12 meses à frente. Comparamos também o poder preditivo dessas medidas com respeito ao núcleo de inflação do IPCA.
Journal: EconomiA - Volume 14, Issue 2, May–August 2013, Pages 11–26