کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1055490 1485247 2016 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تحلیل ریسک حوادث اورژانسی آلودگی آب بر اساس شبکه های بیزی
کلمات کلیدی
شبکه بیزی؛ تحلیل ریسک؛ آلودگی آب؛ پارامتر حساسیت
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی


• Emergent potential accident locations were identified.
• A Bayesian Network model including human factors was established.
• The risk probabilities and sensitive factors of accidents were deduced.
• Accident probabilities were calculated under the most unfavorable circumstances.

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Environmental Management - Volume 165, 1 January 2016, Pages 199–205
نویسندگان
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