Optimization Research of Refueled Scheme Based on Fuel Price Prediction of the Voyage Charter

Fuel cost is the key element of ship owners to control operating costs in the business of voyage charter. While fuel price changes frequently over time and also ocean shipping transport cycle is long, and therefore how to develop the most economical refueling scheme among the ports of call becomes one of the significant issues that the ship owners concerning. This study addresses the refueling scheme optimization problem for voyage charter operators from the perspective of the ship owner. First, an ARMA-based model was proposed to forecast a time serials of the fuel prices. Then, to maximize the shipping operation profit, the non-linear programming model is formulated to solve the optimal refueling scheme where to refuel and how much to refuel. Finally, a case study on a Pacific Ocean-circle route under multi-charter voyage contracts is conducted for a dry bulk cargo ship. The results indicate that the optimal fuel supply program compared with conventional refueling cost saves 263,400 USD, accounting for 14.3% of the total operating profit.