کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1549687 | 1513101 | 2015 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Model output statistics cascade to improve day ahead solar irradiance forecast
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل خروجی آمار مدل برای بهبود پیش بینی روز تابش خورشید
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کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی، تابش خورشیدی، فتوولتائیک، آمار خروجی مدل
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper a new hybrid Model Output Statistics (MOS), named MOS cascade, is developed to refine the day-ahead forecast of the global horizontal irradiance provided by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The proposed approach is based on a sequence of two different MOS. The first, called MOSRH, is a new physically based algorithm, built to correct the treatment of humidity in the WRF radiation schemes. The second, called MOSNN, is based on artificial intelligence techniques and aims to correct the main systematic and learnable errors of the Numerical Weather Prediction output. The 1-day and 2-day forecast accuracies are analyzed via direct comparison with irradiance data measured in two sites, Rome and Lugano. The paper shows that a considerable reduction in error was achieved using MOSRH model and MOS cascade. The differences between the two sites are discussed in details. Finally, the results obtained are compared with the benchmark accuracy reached for the data available for the average climate in Southern Spain and Switzerland.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 117, July 2015, Pages 99-113
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 117, July 2015, Pages 99-113
نویسندگان
M. Pierro, F. Bucci, C. Cornaro, E. Maggioni, A. Perotto, M. Pravettoni, F. Spada,