Subsistence in isolation: Fishing dependence and perceptions of change on Kiritimati, the world's largest atoll

• Small island nations depend on fishery resources due to their geographic isolation.
• Perceptions of change in local fishery resources was assessed through interviews.
• Evidence of a shifting baseline of perceived fishery status by fishers.
• Fishers anticipated amplifying fishing pressure in cases of future resource decline.
• Receptivity for current policies supports future fisheries management.

Small island nations are reliant on local fishery resources due to their geographic isolation. The people of Kiritimati, the world's largest atoll, are ranked amongst the most vulnerable to degradation of their local reef resources because of their high reef dependence and exposure to threats. We conducted semi-structured interviews in 103 households, stratified across the atoll's five villages, to characterize Kiritimati's fishery, and to examine people's perceptions of the fishery status and their fishery dependence (assessed by responses to hypothetical declines in fishery catches). High immigration rates have created a shifting baseline in the community, with more recent immigrants perceiving the local fishery to be in better condition than those who have fished on Kiritimati over the long term. Due to their high dependence on fishery resources and limited alternatives for feeding their families, 70% of respondents anticipated continuing to fish even during a fifty percent hypothetical fishery decline. Despite these limitations to adaptive capacity, the people of Kiritimati were open to discussing new conservation policies that would conserve their fisheries, suggesting that locally supported conservation strategies may aid in alleviating some of their vulnerability. This study demonstrates how poverty and geographic isolation can drive low adaptive capacity to resource changes, and suggests that policy interventions are needed to avoid further reef fishery degradation and to support fishery-dependent livelihoods.