A study on evolution of energy intensity in China with heterogeneity and rebound effect

• Provide a method to measure the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the energy intensity's evolution.
• Construct a method to measure the rebound effect with spatial correlation considered.
• Spatial-temporal heterogeneity is identified in the evolution of China's energy intensity.
• Rebound effect is found to reduce the effect of technological progress on energy intensity.
• Applicable policies considering heterogeneity and rebound effect are given.

Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and rebound effect are significant issues on evolution of energy intensity. This paper analyzed the local effect on the energy intensity evolution cross the thirty provinces of China from 1995 to 2011 applying the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model, calculated the rebound effect in both national and provincial levels during the same sample period above, and examined the effect of technological progress on energy intensity when there exists rebound effect. The results show that heterogeneity exists significantly in the evolution of China's energy intensity. On the point of view of the spatial and the temporal dimension, the identification of heterogeneity helps to comprehend the situation of the energy intensity which has been improved in higher degree during the period after 2000 than before, and more obviously in eastern region than central and western region. This paper also proves that the effect of technological progress on decreasing energy intensity is restricted because of the rebound effect. Therefore the spatio-temporal variation in the path of energy intensity's evolution should be fully considered, and corresponding policies are necessarily made to reduce rebound effect, which will lead to make the balanced development of energy consumption in different regions of China.