Market-based valuation of transmission network expansion. A heuristic application in GB

► We assess the expected profits from electricity network expansions. ► Load, renewable generation, fuel prices, and emission allowance price are stochastic. ► We infer future behavior of economic variables from markets (risk-neutral valuation). ► We consider the performance of the time-varying system over the project lifetime. ► We simulate whole distribution of effects of the expansion project on key variables.