Variation of SEP event occurrence with heliospheric magnetic field magnitudes

Recent work based on nitrate abundances in polar ice cores has shown that large fluence solar energetic (E>30MeV) particle (LSEP) events during the spacecraft era of observations (1960-present) are diminished in comparison with those of some preceding eras detected in the ice cores dating back to 1561. McCracken et al. [McCracken, K.G., Dreschhoff, G.A.M., Smart, D.F., Shea, M.A. A study of the frequency of occurrence of large-fluence solar proton events and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, Sol. Phys., 224, 359-372, 2004] have reported an inverse correlation between LSEP events and the magnitudes of the associated reconstructed heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF). A physical working model by McCracken [McCracken, K.G. Changes in the cosmic ray and heliomagnetic components of space climate, 1428-2005, including the variable occurrence of solar energetic particle events, Adv. Space Res., 40, 1070-1077, 2007a; McCracken, K.G. High frequency of occurrence of large solar energetic particle events prior to 1958 and a possible repetition in the near future, Space Weather, 5, S07004, 2007b] is that the lower HMF and coronal magnetic field B imply that fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce shocks with enhanced Alfvenic Mach numbers MA and higher compression ratios r, leading to shock production of more numerous and energetic LSEP events. From a possible decline of the HMF over the next several solar cycles he has urged a watch for a return to the environment of high-frequency, high-fluence LSEP events preceding the current spacecraft era. His LSEP event watch involves three independent questions about (1) the physical model, (2) the prediction of decreasing solar-cycle sunspot numbers and heliomagnetic fields, and (3) the inferred anti-correlation between LSEP events and HMFs. Here we discuss observational evidence bearing on the last question and find little support for the claimed LSEP-HMF anticorrelation.