The Pacific sea surface temperature

The Pacific sea surface temperature data contains two components: NLNL, a signal that exhibits the familiar El Niño/La Niña phenomenon and NHNH, a signal of one-year period. Analysis reveals: (1) The existence of an annual solar forcing FSFS; (2) NHNH is phase locked directly to FSFS while NLNL is frequently phase locked to the 2nd or 3rd subharmonic of FSFS. At least ten distinct subharmonic time segments of NLNL since 1870 are found. The beginning or end dates of these segments have a near one-to-one correspondence with the abrupt climate changes previously reported. Limited predictability is possible.

► El Niño/La Niña consists of 2 components phase-locked to annual solar cycle.
► The first component NLNL is the familiar El Niño/La Niña effect.
► The second NHNH component has a period of 1 cycle/year.
► NLNL can be phase-locked to 2nd or 3rd subharmonic of annual cycle.
► Ends of phase-locked segments correspond to abrupt previously reported climate changes.