Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China: Decomposition analysis using LMDI

• We developed a model to decompose carbon emissions into five factors.
• We estimated the directions and magnitudes of the influences of five factors.
• We find the sources of carbon emissions from sectors and regions.
• We discussed some strategies for China’s emissions abatement.

This study analyzes factors that influence carbon emissions due to fossil energy consumption in China to identify key factors for policies promoting carbon emission reductions. Carbon emissions for energy consumption are decomposed into energy structure, energy intensity, industry structure, economic output, and population scale effects. The major driver of carbon emissions is the economic output effect, followed by population scale and energy structure effects. The energy intensity effect is a main inhibitory factor. The factors influencing carbon emissions in China were investigated for different industries, sectors and regions. The results show that carbon emissions mostly arise from industry, while the other sectors generally exhibit good performance in reducing emissions. In industry, the main contributors to carbon emissions are electricity production, petroleum processing and coking, metal smelting and rolling, chemical manufacture, and non-metal mineral products. Regional analysis revealed differences in economic output, energy intensity, and industrial structure among three regions of China. Policy implications in terms of industrial structure and energy consumption are highlighted.