Exploring future patterns of meat consumption

• The consumption of animal-based foodstuffs increases with income.
• There is no straight relationship between meat consumption and income.
• Reduced meat consumption is taking place in a limited set of high-income countries.
• The diversity in meat consumption patterns is very high.
• Future projections of meat demand forecast a slowdown in meat demand.

The nutrition transition encompasses a set of major shifts in human diet and nutritional status, throughout history and that is influenced by a wide range of factors such as income, technical change, urbanisation and culture. High-income societies are witnessing a shift towards diets with more fat, sugar, processed foods and less fibre, leading to a sharp increase in non-communicable diseases, such as obesity. This trend can also be observed among the middle classes of emerging countries. However, increasing evidence suggests that a final shift is occurring, following behavioural change towards consuming higher-quality fats, more whole grains, fruit and vegetables, and particularly less meat. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, an assessment is made of where different countries are located in the different phases of the nutrition transition. Second, a qualitative investigation is made into the factors enhancing and hindering the latest phase of the transition—particularly towards less meat consumption—taking into account cultural differences between consumer groups across countries. The analysis of both objectives generates insights into possible future scenarios of meat consumption.