Quality of grey-box models and identified parameters as function of the accuracy of input and observation signals

• Detailed building energy simulations are used as virtual measurements.
• Influence of training data on accuracy of identified grey-box models is shown.
• Small differences between optimal model structures for uninsulated and insulated dwelling.
• Thermal properties are accurately estimated when heat flux measurement are included.
• Quantification of parameter uncertainty show limited influence by unbiased noise on data.

The integration of buildings in a Smart Grid, enabling demand-side management and thermal storage, requires robust reduced-order building models that allow for the development and evaluation of demand-side management control strategies. To develop such models for existing buildings, with often unknown the thermal properties, data-driven system identification methods are proposed.In this paper, system identification is carried out to identify suitable reduced-order models. Therefore, grey-box models of increasing complexity are identified on results from simulations with a detailed physical model, deployed in the integrated district energy assessment simulation (IDEAS) package in Modelica.Firstly, the robustness of identified grey-box models for day-ahead predictions and simulations of the thermal response of a dwelling, as well as the physical interpretation of the identified parameters, are analyzed. The influence of the identification dataset is quantified, comparing the added value of dedicated identification experiments against identification on data from in use buildings.Secondly, the influence of the data used for identification on model performance and the reliability of the parameter estimates is quantified. Both alternative measurements and the influence of noise on the data are considered.