Decommissioning forecast in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, 2013–2033

• Deepwater structure decommissioning forecast in the Gulf of Mexico.
• About 2 dozen deepwater structures are expected to be decommissioned over the next decade.
• Methodological overview and limitations of analysis.
• First deepwater structure decommissioning forecast performed in the Gulf of Mexico.

One hundred and ten fixed, tensioned, and moored structures have been installed in the Gulf of Mexico in water depth greater than 400 ft, and through 2012, 15 structures have been decommissioned. Decommissioning is the final stage of an assets life cycle, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the structure and associated production facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all debris created by the operations. The purpose of this paper is to describe a decommissioning forecast for deepwater structures in the Gulf of Mexico. Three approaches (“simple models”) based on lease status, gross revenue, and production forecasting are applied to infer a short, medium, and long-term decommissioning forecast. Model assumptions are outlined along with a discussion of the limitations and uncertainty of analysis. About two dozen deepwater fixed platforms are expected to be removed over the next decade, but only 5 floaters are expected to be decommissioned through 2032.