Electromagnetic radiation early warning criterion of rock burst based on statistical theory

Rock bursts are serious natural disasters encountered worldwide in coal mining and rock engineering. In order to forecast rock bursts more effectively, a new rock burst forecasting index E, consisting of intensity and the number of pulses, is proposed, on the basis of abnormal characteristic symptoms of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) generated before rock bursts, combined with statistical theory. The index is distributed as a χ2 distribution with 2 degrees of freedom, i.e., E∼. Via this index, a quantitative comprehensive forecasting criterion of EMR was initially established. E values were calculated when the occurrence probability of the occurrence of a rock burst was 50%, 70% and 90%. Appropriate measures should be taken when using these values on the scene. Using EMR data collected in the Nanshan Mine of the Hegang mining area, we verified that the analytical result were consistent with actual situations. This index is of theoretical importance and as a reference for forecasting rock bursts in coal mines.