Seismic failure probability of concrete slab on CFR dams with welded and friction contacts by response surface method

In this study, failure probability of the concrete slab on concrete-faced rockfill (CFR) dams with welded and friction contact is investigated under earthquake effects by reliability analysis. For this purpose, Torul CFR dam is selected as an example and numerical solutions are performed by considering combination of reliability analysis–finite element method. 1992 Erzincan earthquake acceleration record is used in the finite element analysis considering deconvolved-base rock input model. In this model, the ground motion to be applied to the foundation base rock is obtained by deconvolution of the free-field surface record. In the materially nonlinear analysis, Drucker–Prager model is used for concrete slab and multi-linear kinematic hardening model is utilized for rockfill. Geometrically nonlinearity is also taken into account. Viscous boundary conditions are defined in the finite element model for both foundation soil and reservoir water. The hydrodynamic pressure of the reservoir water is considered using 2D fluid finite elements based on the Lagrangian approach. Both welded contact and friction contact based on the Coulomb’s friction law are defined in the structural connections. Improved Rackwitz–Fiessler method is used with response surface method in the reliability analysis. The tensile and compression strengths of the concrete slab are utilized in the implicit limit state functions considering various thicknesses. The probability of failure of the most critical points in the concrete slab is obtained. According to this study, the probabilities of failure obtained from the CFR dam including friction contact are lower. When the welded contact is considered in joints, the probability of failure of the concrete slab is 1 due to tensile stress limit state and compression stress limit state only if concrete slab is linear. The most critical probability of failure of the concrete slab appears in the case that the concrete slab is linear and rockfill is materially nonlinear. The probability of failure of the concrete slab decreases if the nonlinearity of the concrete is considered. Also, hydrodynamic pressure decreases the reliability of the concrete slab.