Innovations in the payment card market: The case of Poland

• Identifies the directions for the development of payment cards market in Poland.
• Makes short-term forecasts of the development of this market.
• Focuses on the intensity measures of payment card use and the use of payment card devices.
• Describes what can be expected from observing the current Polish electronic payments market.
• Applies an econometric modelling approach that can be used to study electronic payments markets elsewhere in the world.

The Polish payment card market is important given the current position of Poland as the largest Central European country. The purpose of this research is to determine directions for the development of the payment cards market in Poland. An econometric model describing some important aspects of this market is presented. Short-term forecasts of this market’s development will be estimated using a set of constructed empirical econometric models, with particular attention paid to the intensity measures of payment card use, as well as to the use of payment card devices. The findings from these models are meant to provide answers to the question of what can be expected from observing the current Polish market for electronic payments. At the same time, the methodology that is applied is universal and can be used to study the directions of development for electronic payments market elsewhere in the world. It should also be emphasized that selection of an appropriate method requires the testing and matching of such models, which will describe market development most effectively.

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