Evaluating the supply security of the future Spanish generating system

We explore the evolution of the Spanish power system vulnerability over the next two decades and its dependency on fossil fuel prices and CO2 allowances costs. Also, the influence of different generation technologies (clean coal, nuclear and solar technologies) on this vulnerability has been considered. The diversity of primary energy resources has been evaluated to carry out the above analysis by means of two indexes: the Shannon index (H) and an adapted biodiversity index (Δ). These indexes have been applied to the power results of the period 2013–2032 that are obtained from a stochastic linear model of the Spanish generating system. As a main conclusion, the vulnerability calculated with Δ is bigger than that deduced from H and showing a negative trend throughout the period. In order to reverse this tendency, the future Spanish generating system should be composed of all the available technologies, considering all the primary energy resources.

► A biodiversity index (Δ) is adapted to the measurement of PG system diversity.
► The ranges of variation of two biodiversity indices (Δ and H) has been calculated.
► The Spanish generation system will become more vulnerable in next two decades.
► The development of hybrid technologies could change this negative trend.
► Economic and political measures are needed to develop these expensive technologies.