کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
400389 1438721 2016 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Reliability forecasting models for electrical distribution systems considering component failures and planned outages
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل های پیش بینی قابلیت اطمینان برای سیستم های توزیع برق با توجه به نقص های جزئی و قطع برق برنامه ریزی شده
کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی قابلیت اطمینان؛ سیستم های توزیع برق (EDS)؛ عوامل تاثیرگذار؛ شکست‌های جزء EDS؛ وقفه های برنامه ریزی شده؛ شبکه عصبی مصنوعی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
چکیده انگلیسی


• A comprehensive model for forecasting distribution system reliability is proposed.
• An ANN forecasting model for EDS failures is proposed using key influencing factors.
• A reliability forecasting model for planned outage is built considering investments.
• Priorities of improvement measures can be obtained using Gray Relational Analysis.

Many utilities in developing countries are investing in installation and renewing of Electrical Distribution System (EDS) components, such as overhead lines, cables and switching devices, to improve the EDS reliability and meet the rapid increase of load demand. In the beginning stage of investment, it is very difficult to evaluate the EDS reliability by using traditional methods due to EDS topology not being fully determined. This paper presents a comprehensive model for forecasting EDS reliability, which is built separately into two parts, i.e. the models for EDS failures and planned outages. Firstly, a three-layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is proposed to forecast the EDS reliability considering EDS failures. Each neuron in the ANN input layer represents a key influencing factor of EDS failures, which are recognized by Gray Relational Analysis (GRA) method. The proposed ANN is trained using historical reliability data of an EDS. In addition, a planned outage reliability model is also built according to the magnitude of investment and type of planned outage. The priorities of improvement measures can also be obtained using the GRA to improve the EDS reliability. Case studies of practical EDSs illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the proposed techniques.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems - Volume 79, July 2016, Pages 228–234
نویسندگان
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