Risk-based optimal bidding strategy of generation company in day-ahead electricity market using information gap decision theory

This paper considers a price-taker generation company to participate in day-ahead electricity energy market. While making optimal bidding strategy for producer, factors such as the characteristics of generator and the market price uncertainty need to be considered because of having direct impact on the expected profit and bidding curve. The market price considered an uncertain variable and it is assumed that the generation company forecasted the market prices. In this study, the uncertainty model of market price is considered based on the concept of weighted average squared error using a variance–covariance matrix. Information gap decision theory is used to develop the bidding strategy of a generation company. It assesses the robustness/opportunity of optimal bidding strategy in the face of the market price uncertainty while producer considers whether a decision risk-averse or risk-taking. It is shown that risk-averse or risk-taking decisions might affect the expected profit and bidding curve to day-ahead electricity market. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed approach.

► An IGDT based methodology is proposed to solve the optimal bidding strategy of GenCo.
► The market price uncertainty is modeled according to weighted average squared error.
► The GenCo can maximize the robustness of bidding strategy against low market prices.
► Also it can be gained from the opportunity of increasing the market prices.