Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan

► The eutrophication model, LM3-Eutro, was corroborated using a hindcast simulation. ► The model predicted a TP concentration of 7.5 μg L−1 using the 5600 MT GLWQA load. ► We estimate that the lake will continue to meet the 7 μg L−1 GLWQA TP concentration.