Statistical analysis of cyclone hazard for Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

The statistical analysis of the tropical cyclone activity for Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, Caribbean Sea) is given. In total, 162 events are selected for period 1635–2000. The number of cyclones in different periods has a large variability. In average, the time interval about 100 years can be considered as stationary one to have the reliability assessment of cyclone hazard. The distribution functions and cumulative frequencies of the cyclones depending on the atmospheric pressure drop and wind speed are calculated. They are used to determine the return period for cyclones with given characteristics (category, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed). The data of the storm-induced surges in the coastal locations of Guadeloupe is collected. It is shown that the surge height increases with increase of the wind speed, but observed data have great dispersion. Numerical simulation of the long water waves induced by the hurricane “Lili” in 2002 is performed; surge heights in Guadeloupe exceed 10 cm.