A cohort-based stochastic model of the population dynamic and long-term management of Conyza bonariensis in fruiting tree crops

• A population model for Conyza bonariensis in fruiting tree crops was developed.
• We identify conditions under which reducing the weed seed bank is an important goal.
• The most effective management strategy integrated no-till, the use of cover and early and late applications of herbicides.
• The demographic parameters associated with the earlier cohort and to the efficacy of early herbicide treatments are clue to the control of C. bonarensis.

Conyza bonariensis is currently a frequent and abundant weed in fruiting tree crops associated with non-tillage in Mediterranean climate areas, such as citrus groves and olive orchards. Because of the mild winters characteristic of this climate, an extended season of seedling emergence, from early autumn to early spring, is often found for this species, this leading to multiple annual cohorts. In this work, a cohort-based stochastic model of C. bonariensis population dynamics was developed and used to simulate the behaviour of the seed bank in Mediterranean fruiting tree crops under ten contrasting management strategies, including single or integrated herbicide and non chemical control measures. The demographic impact of tillage system (ploughing vs. no-till), the use of cover, and timing of herbicide applications was simulated. The model was parameterized with information taken from the literature. In the absence of any control and under no-tillage the modelled seed bank reached an average equilibrium density of 378,092 ± 10,865 seeds m−2. The most effective management strategy integrated no-till, the use of cover and early and late applications of herbicides, which reduced the equilibrium densities of the seed bank by 78.7%. A sensitivity analysis indicated that C. bonariensis populations in Mediterranean fruiting tree crops are particularly sensitive to small changes in the demographic parameters associated with the earlier cohort and to the efficacy of early herbicide treatments. A diversified, integrated approach including different interventions of chemical and cultural nature appears to be the most successful strategy at the field level for controlling C. bonariensis in Mediterranean fruiting tree crops.