Modelling future conditions in the degraded semi-arid estuary of Australia's largest river using ecosystem states

Over the last ten years, there has been a major decline in the condition of the Coorong, the estuary for Australia's largest river system, the River Murray. This decline is due to prolonged drought combined with past management of the Murray-Darling Basin. In order to successfully manage the estuary in the future, predictions are needed to evaluate the effect of possible management actions on the Coorong ecosystem under a variety of climatic scenarios. The alternative stable state concept can be extended to non-equilibrium systems, allowing for modelling of condition. Rather than constraining the definition of alternative states to those that are stable, we identify a suite of ecosystem states that occur naturally, but also include those that arise during the decline of the system. Eight distinct states were defined, with thresholds between them based on a combination of environmental characteristics associated with co-occurring biota. Threshold values for environmental characteristics define the transition rules between states. Mapping these states allows us to characterise the condition of the estuary in both space and time. The distribution of these states, and the diversity of states supported can be used to create an ecosystem condition index. By calculating the value of the index over time, the trajectory of ecosystem condition merges, and predictions can be made about future condition, should the current situation continue. This trajectory modelling can then form a baseline against which to evaluate possible management actions under a variety of climatic scenarios to identify those most likely to improve the condition of the Coorong.