Linear model estimates of potential salt rejection and theoretical salinity increase in a standardized water column of recurrent Arctic flaw leads and polynyas

A primitive linear model is applied to quantify potential salt rejection and theoretical salinity increase in the standardized water column of 46 individual circum-Arctic flaw leads/polynyas based on intermediate salinities, seasonal ice production rates, and flaw lead/polynya size. Analysis shows that open water with low initial salinity may not reject enough salt to produce enhanced salinities despite high ice formation rates. Conversely, flaw leads/polynyas with higher initial salinities in combination with moderate to high ice formation rates produce sufficient salt to increase flaw lead/polynya salinities. Flaw leads/polynyas with maximum potential for theoretical salinity increase and dense brine formation are located along the Beaufort Sea coast, where both initial salinities and ice formation rates are high. Salinity increase is generally moderate to high in Chukchi Sea flaw leads/polynyas, and widely moderate in the East Siberian, Kara, and Barents Seas. Southern central and southeastern Laptev Sea flaw leads/polynyas show weak potentials for salt rejection, theoretical salinity increase and dense brine formation due to extremely low salinities and ice formation rates. Though the formation of dense brines on Arctic shelves is a complex process in nature, the simplified model provides a suitable and quick (graphic) tool for Arctic marine geologists and biologists or cold region engineers to compare individual flaw lead/polynya sections in terms of freeze-related potential salt rejection and theoretical salinity increase.