Fuzzy logic-based portfolio selection with particle filtering and anomaly detection

This paper proposes a new knowledge-based system (KBS) featuring fuzzy logic (FL) with particle filtering and anomaly detection to create high-performance investment portfolios. In particular, our FL system selects a portfolio with fine risk-return profiles from a number of candidates by integrating multilateral performance measures. The candidates consist of various portfolios based on multiple time-series models estimated by a particle filter with anomaly detectors. In an out-of-sample numerical experiment with a dataset of international financial assets, we demonstrate our KBS successfully generates a series of selected portfolios with satisfactory investment records.