Research articleFault prediction for nonlinear stochastic system with incipient faults based on particle filter and nonlinear regression

- .Based on the reasonable assumption about the incipient faults and particle filter, the fault signal with high-accuracy and the system state are estimated simultaneously.
- According to the estimated fault signal, the fault parameters are obtained by utilizing the nonlinear regression method.
- The future fault signal can be predicted by the estimated fault parameters.
- Simulations of Three-tank system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

This paper is concerned with the fault prediction for the nonlinear stochastic system with incipient faults. Based on the particle filter and the reasonable assumption about the incipient faults, the modified fault estimation algorithm is proposed, and the system state is estimated simultaneously. According to the modified fault estimation, an intuitive fault detection strategy is introduced. Once each of the incipient fault is detected, the parameters of which are identified by a nonlinear regression method. Then, based on the estimated parameters, the future fault signal can be predicted. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the simulations of the Three-tank system.